With the UFC’s next pay-per-view event just more than three weeks away, it’s time to begin having a look at the betting odds for your card. Two bouts on the card have lines released, and they’re about as different as can be. In the main event, T.J. Dillashaw will defend his newly won UFC bantamweight title against the man he took it from, Renan Barao. In their first fight, Barao closed as a enormous -910 favorite (wager $910 to win $100) over Dillashaw. The Team Alpha Male manhood ruled that first battle, scoring a fifth-round TKO in one of the biggest statistical upsets in UFC history. This moment, the chances are much closer, with Dillashaw sitting at -140 and Barao the small underdog in +120 (bet $100 to win $120). There are eight extra bouts on the card which up until now didn’t have betting lines posted. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas changed that now as he published the full UFC 177 betting odds at 5Dimes Sportsbook. ————– MAIN CARD (PPV, 10pm ET) UFC Bantamweight Title TJ Dillashaw -140 Renan Barao +100 Tony Ferguson -265 Danny Castillo +185 Bethe Correia -160 Shayna Baszler +120 Carlos Diego Ferreira -280 Ramsey Nijem +200 Yancy Medeiros -135 Damon Jackson -105 ————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 8pm ET) Lorenz Larkin -140 Derek Brunson +100 Henry Cejudo -185 Scott Jorgensen +145 Anthony Hamilton -210 Ruan Potts +160 Joe Soto -125 Anthony Birchak -115 ————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Night, 7:30pm ET) Chris Wade -140 Cain Carrizosa +100 ————– Brad’s Analysis: I actually desire Bethe Correia to win this battle, so I do not need to hear anything about the ridiculous”Four Horsewomen” ever again. Nevertheless, Correia hasn’t confronted anyone of Baszler’s skill level, particularly when it comes to grappling. I believe Baszler is able to sift through Correia’s striking and drag this battle to the floor where she will have a distinct edge. The greatest worry for me is about Baszler’s long layoff and harm woes of late, and it can be more than enough to keep me away from gambling her. Tony Ferguson appears like a nightmare matchup for Danny Castillo. Castillo has been tagged on the feet a few times prior to, and unlike his charms against Tim Means or Anthony Njokuani, he won’t be able to fall back on his wrestling here if the striking does not go to plan. This ought to be very competitive in most regions, but Ferguson has slight edges which should propel him to victory. Lorenz Larkin is only 27, but the decline in his performances of late makes him look like a 37-year-old. He seemed totally listless against Brad Tavares for 10 minutes, and was immediately dispatched by Costas Philippou. On the other hand, Derek Brunson supplied the toughest test of Yoel Romero’s livelihood in his most recent bout. It seems like Larkin was really overvalued as a prospect while in Strikeforce, while Brunson was overlooked. This is a very difficult bout to predict in terms of a side or a total, so I’ll probably stay away entirely. On the other hand, I think Ramsey Nijem is in for a rough night against Carlos Diego Ferreira. Nijem might have a wrestling edge here, but even that’s questionable. Ferreira is the far greater submission grappler, and likely even the better striker at this point (though Nijem’s improvement in that regard last time out was nice to see). I expect Ferreira to get the win, and probably put another finish on his resume from his submission skills or Nijem’s questionable chin. Henry Cejudo always made for fascinating bouts when he had been confronting completely overmatched competition, so now that he’s up against a valid test in Scott Jorgensen, I have to admit this is among my most anticipated bouts on the card. The physical benefits here belong to Cejudo, as does the wrestling advantage, naturally. He may not have the well-rounded skill set to stop Jorgensen, but I believe he wins rounds with takedowns and scrambling. Cejudo passed one of the vital tests for prospects in his final outing too, becoming broken square on the jaw and shaking it off to win not just the combat, but that round too. The big question with Cejudo, as always, is: how focused is he? Maybe being signed with the UFC was that the impetus he needed to begin taking the game seriously, as in his past appearances (and non-appearances) with Legacy FC, it’s quite obvious he’s been coasting at times. Against Jorgensen he might not have the ability to get away with a half effort, and if he does it’ll make him even more particular. A Legacy veteran making his UFC debut with less fanfare is 39-year-old Richard Odoms. His sole loss came to UFC heavyweight Jared Rosholt, but he’s generally been able to control and outhustle competitions to pick up choices. That will be difficult against Ruslan Magomedov, who really possesses decent cardio for a heavyweight, to go along with his solid striking. Coming off of nearly a year layoff, it is difficult to expect much from Odoms, so I anticipate Magomedov to pick up the win, but he is someone I completely expect to fade when he can get a few more wins and confront adequate competition. The hype on Yancy Medeiros came a bit too fast, and should almost be snuffed out at this stage. His striking defense appeared atrocious against the two Yves Edwards and Jim Miller, and his entry game was practically non-existent since he was exploited within minutes of hitting the floor against Miller. Maybe that may work to the advantage of his backers from Justin Edwards nevertheless, as Edwards really isn’t UFC caliber, even in this point. Edwards has a fantastic guillotine, and not many different abilities, so Medeiros has this struggle to win as long as he doesn’t dive into that weapon. Edwards will probably come out quickly, because he must know that a win will indicate the end of the UFC employ. Speaking of pink-slip derbies, the loser of Ruan Potts and Anthony Hamilton will probably be shown the door too, because both put on putrid dislpays within their UFC debuts. Potts is a competitive — but not overly talented — grappler, while Hamilton showed massive holes in his own grappling against Alexey Oleinik. On the flip side, Hamilton has some power and Potts was set out by one shot on the floor against Soa Palelei. Either guy could finish this battle quickly and I wouldn’t be surprised, or else they could play it safe and we can be treated to some truly awful heavyweight MMA. If the price for this bout to go over 1.5 rounds is high enough, I might just take a shot in hopes the bout really is of the hilariously bad selection, but I can’t see myself putting much more than Monopoly money down on this competition.
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